[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 27 09:36:33 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels today
as well. Solar wind speed remained between 400 and 420 km/s
until around 1100UT today and then gradually declined to
360 km/s by 2300UT. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the
normal value during the first half of the UT day and then
showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal value
during the second half of the day. The effect of a recurrent
coronal hole may start to strengthen the solar wind stream
late on 27 October. Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21222111
Darwin 4 21112112
Learmonth 10 213----3
Culgoora 4 11222111
Camden 3 11122100
Canberra 3 11222100
Hobart 3 11222100
Casey(Ant) 9 33332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1221 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled
28 Oct 20 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
29 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 25 October
and is current for interval 26-28 October. Geomagnetic
conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic
activity may rise to active to minor storm levels on 28 October
due to an expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Fair-normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Oct Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Pre-dawn depressions in MUFs may continue for the
next few days. An expected rise in the geomagnetic activity
levels late on 27 October and on 28 October may result in
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct -4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
28 Oct -7 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Oct -4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: The pre-dawn depressions in MUFs, that are being
observed for the last few days, are expected to continue
for the next few days. HF conditions may show further
degradations from the second half of 27 October for about
48 hours due an expected rise in geomagnetic activity
through this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 81900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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