[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 25 09:46:08 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued its steady decline to a low
of 400 km/s at 18 UT before increasing again to 470 km/s by 23
UT. Solar wind density has increased over the UT day to 8 p/cc
consistent with a recurring coronal hole region becoming geo-effective
over the next 36 hours. Expect a continued increase in solar
wind speed over the next 2 days. Observed solar activity was
at very low levels and is expected to remain very low.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11212122
Darwin 5 22211122
Learmonth 6 21222122
Culgoora 4 11212121
Camden 4 11212111
Canberra 5 11212122
Hobart 4 01311112
Casey(Ant) 10 3-422122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Charters_Towers 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Oct 12 Unsettled
27 Oct 16 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase over the next 48 hours
as a recurring coronal hole region moves into a geo-effective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
26 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were depressed to 20% at low latitudes
between 0 and 20 UT before recovering at local dawn. Similar
depressions at low latitudes are expected over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% between 0 and 20 UT.
Near predicted monthly values to slightly
enhanced after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% between 0 and 20 UT.
Near predicted monthly values after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 0 Depressions to 20% are likely at low latitudes.
26 Oct -2 Depressions to 20% are likely at low latitudes.
27 Oct -5 Depressions to 20% are likely at all latitudes.
COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support was observed between 0
and 20 UT in Pacific/Equatorial and Northern Australian regions.
Similar conditions are expected over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 97500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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