[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 24 09:53:18 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has shown a steady decline but remains
at an elevated level of 530 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF
fluctuated between +/- 4 nT. Observed solar activity associated
with region 917 was at very low levels. US SXI and ESA EIT satellite
imagery show a recurring near-equatorial coronal hole region
approximately 3 days from a geo-effective position. Further high
speed wind streams associated with this region are likely around
26 or 27 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11121112
Darwin 4 21111112
Learmonth 4 21111112
Culgoora 3 10121121
Camden 3 1102111-
Canberra 2 10021111
Hobart 3 11022111
Casey(Ant) 9 -3331113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 2531 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 6 Quiet
25 Oct 6 Quiet
26 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours
and are expected to remain quiet over the next 48 hours. US SXI
and ESA EIT satellite imagery show a recurring near-equatorial
coronal hole region approximately 3 days from a geo-effective
position. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase around 26
to 27 Oct as this region becomes geo-effective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
26 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of depressed HF conditions were observed 0 -
15 UT at low and mid latitudes. Similar depressions, particularly
at low latitudes, are expected over the next 2 days. Depressions
at all latitudes are likely around 26 to 27 Oct with an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15 to 30% between 0 and 15 UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% between 0 and 15 UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% between 0 and 15 UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct -5 Depressions of 15 to 30% are likely at all low latitudes.
25 Oct -5 Depressions of 15 to 30% are likely at all low latitudes.
26 Oct -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support was observed between 0
and 15 UT in Pacific/Equatorial, Northern Australian and Southern
Australian regions. Similar conditions are expected over the
next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 582 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list