[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Oct             13 Oct             14 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and 
is expected to remain this way for the next few days whilst there 
are no active regions currently on disk. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT 
throughout the UT day. Solar wind velocity declined to be 330km/s 
at the time of this report. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112101
      Darwin               4   22111102
      Learmonth            4   22112201
      Culgoora             4   12212111
      Camden               3   --112111
      Canberra             3   12112101
      Hobart               3   12112101
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              2   1000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Oct     6    Quiet 
13 Oct     6    Quiet 
14 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain at this level for 
the next 2 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal over the last 
24 hours. Some depressed conditions observed for low latitudes 
as well as some sporadic E at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Oct    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Oct    10    near predicted monthly values 
13 Oct    10    near predicted monthly values 
14 Oct    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aust/NZ 
and Antarctic regions. Some depressed periods observed during 
local day for Northern Aus/Equatorial regions. Mostly normal 
conditions are expected for all regions over the next 2 days 
as there has been no significant solar or geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    38800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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