[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Oct             12 Oct             13 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The solar wind has slowly declined over the last 24 
hours and is currently 360 km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22100111
      Darwin               2   11100002
      Learmonth            2   22100011
      Culgoora             2   11100121
      Camden               7   ----2222
      Canberra             1   11100011
      Hobart               2   12000011
      Casey(Ant)           8   33321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1320 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Oct     5    Quiet 
12 Oct     5    Quiet 
13 Oct     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal over the last 
24 hours. Isolated cases of sporadic E were observed at mid and 
high latitudes during the night-time hours and at low latitudes 
during daylight hours. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Oct     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Oct     8    near predicted monthly values 
12 Oct     8    near predicted monthly values 
13 Oct    10    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    78000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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