[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 13 09:41:28 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain this way for the next few days whilst there
are no active regions currently on disk. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT
from 0000UT to 2140UT at which it increased in magnitude to 5nT.
Solar wind velocity steadily increased from 320km/s to 380km/s
over the same period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11112212
Darwin 6 12112213
Learmonth 4 12012212
Culgoora 4 11112212
Camden 3 10112202
Canberra 4 10122202
Hobart 6 2-222202
Casey(Ant) 6 2-321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1020 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 6 Quiet
14 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain at this level for
the next 24 hours, with a possible increase in geomagnetic
activity for 14_Oct and 15_Oct due to recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal over the last
24 hours. Some depressed conditions observed for low latitudes
and disturbed periods for high latitudes. Good HF conditions
observed for mid latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours. Deterioration in HF conditions possible for
high latitudes on 14Oct-15Oct from coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 10 near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 10 near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aust/NZ
regions. Isolated disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Depressed
periods observed again for Northern Aus/Equatorial regions. Similar
conditions are expected for each region over the next 24 hours.
A possible increase in geomagnetic activity on 14Oct and 15Oct
could result in disturbed ionospheric conditions for Southern
Aus/NZ and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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