[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Learmonth            3   11112021
      Culgoora             3   11201121
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             2   11101011
      Hobart               2   11111020
      Casey(Ant)           8   33322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1210 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct     5    Quiet 
07 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Oct     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed up to 40% 14-17 UT, near predicted
      monthly values at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% 01-06 UT, near predicted monthly
      values at other times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed
      between 09 and 19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                30% are possible at low latitudes. 
07 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                30% are possible at low latitudes. 
08 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 
                30% are possible at low latitudes. 

COMMENT: High and mid latitude night communications may be degraded 
due to spread F. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density: 5.1 p/cc  Temp: 64300 K  Bz: 0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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