[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11221011
      Darwin               4   12221012
      Learmonth            3   11221001
      Culgoora             4   11221111
      Camden               2   10220011
      Canberra             2   10220011
      Hobart               2   11220001
      Casey(Ant)           6   22321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1010 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct     3    Quiet 
08 Oct     4    Quiet 
09 Oct     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Oct    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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