[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: A coronal mass ejection, directed eastwards, was first 
observed on the LASCO imagery at 04/1042 UT. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Darwin               5   22111212
      Learmonth            3   21111210
      Culgoora             3   11101211
      Camden               2   11101110
      Canberra             2   01101111
      Hobart               2   11001210
      Casey(Ant)           7   2-321221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1211 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct     5    Quiet 
06 Oct     5    Quiet 
07 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions expected. Geomagnetic activity 
may increase slightly on 7 October. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Oct     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    61700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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