[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: The solar wind is steady at 525 km/s due to coronal 
hole effects. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (IMF) is mainly neutral at +/- 2 nT. Expect the solar wind 
to slowly return to normal levels as coronal hole effects fade. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to active 

Estimated Indices 01 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33332211
      Darwin              10   23332222
      Learmonth           11   33332311
      Culgoora             9   23332211
      Camden              10   23342211
      Canberra            11   23342221
      Hobart              15   34443211
      Casey(Ant)          16   44432322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   0334 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Oct     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic field to return to quiet to unsettled 
conditions as the effects of the high speed wind stream dissipate. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Due to the effects of the disturbed geomagnetic field 
expect the HF conditions to be slightly depressed later today 
and tomorrow. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct     5    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
03 Oct     5    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
04 Oct    11    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect slightly depressed conditions in the southern 
australian regions due to geomagnetic disturbances later today 
and tomorrow. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:   14.0 p/cc  Temp:    45900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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