[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Oct             04 Oct             05 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: The solar wind has slowly decreased over the last 24 
hours and is currently 450 km/s. Expect continued steady decrease 
in wind speed as coronal hole regions move away from a geo-effective 
position. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(IMF) is mainly neutral at +/- 2 nT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222221
      Darwin               6   22222121
      Learmonth            6   12212222
      Culgoora             5   11222221
      Camden               6   12222221
      Canberra             6   12222221
      Hobart               6   12222221
      Casey(Ant)          10   23422222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Camden               8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             25   5544 3313     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Oct     6    Quiet 
05 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic field to return to quiet conditions 
as the effects of the high speed wind stream dissipate. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions throughout the Australasian region have 
returned to normal as effects from the disturbed geomagnetic 
field dissipate. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Oct    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Oct     5    near predicted monthly values 
04 Oct    11    near predicted monthly values 
05 Oct    11    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions in all Australasian regions 
as the effects of recent geomagnetic disturbances dissipate. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 530 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   168000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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