[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: The solar wind went from 280 to 425 km/s due to coronal 
hole effects. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (IMF) maintained a southward component up to -10 nT between 
03-09 UT. Presently the Bz component of the IMF is southward 
at about -5 nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 30 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   14342222
      Darwin              14   24342223
      Learmonth           14   24343222
      Culgoora            12   14342222
      Camden              12   14342212
      Canberra            12   14342212
      Hobart              11   14342112
      Casey(Ant)          12   24332322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1110 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct    16    Unsettled to active 
02 Oct    12    Unsettled 
03 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Due to a coronal hole entering a geoeffective position 
and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) 
going southward, geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled to 
active. Presently the Bz component of the IMF is southward8, so 
it is likely that the geomagnetic field will remain unsettle 
to active today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: HF conditions have returned to near monthly predicted 
levels, however, due to the effects of the disturbed geomagnetic 
field expect the HF conditions to be slightly depressed later 
today and tomorrow. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Sep     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct     5    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
02 Oct     5    near predicted monthly values 
03 Oct    11    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The T index has returned to near monthly predicted values, 
however, expect slightly depressed conditions in the southern 
australian regions due to geomagnetic disturbances later today 
and tomorrow. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    11500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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