[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 1 09:30:55 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: The solar wind went from 280 to 425 km/s due to coronal
hole effects. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) maintained a southward component up to -10 nT between
03-09 UT. Presently the Bz component of the IMF is southward
at about -5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 14342222
Darwin 14 24342223
Learmonth 14 24343222
Culgoora 12 14342222
Camden 12 14342212
Canberra 12 14342212
Hobart 11 14342112
Casey(Ant) 12 24332322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1110 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 16 Unsettled to active
02 Oct 12 Unsettled
03 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Due to a coronal hole entering a geoeffective position
and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
going southward, geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled to
active. Presently the Bz component of the IMF is southward8, so
it is likely that the geomagnetic field will remain unsettle
to active today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have returned to near monthly predicted
levels, however, due to the effects of the disturbed geomagnetic
field expect the HF conditions to be slightly depressed later
today and tomorrow.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
02 Oct 5 near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 11 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The T index has returned to near monthly predicted values,
however, expect slightly depressed conditions in the southern
australian regions due to geomagnetic disturbances later today
and tomorrow.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 11500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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