[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Two B-class flares were produced by AR885. No other 
significant solar activity observed. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Darwin               1   1110000-
      Learmonth            0   100000--
      Culgoora             1   111000--
      Camden               5   21211222
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   011100--
      Casey(Ant)           7   222222--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5   3100 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May     3    Quiet 
29 May    12    Unsettled 
30 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the UT day. A possible weak shock passage resulting from a faint 
full-halo CME observed early in the UT day May 26 may result 
in unsettled periods on days two to three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions observed. Minor 
disturbances possible local night hours at low and 
high latitudes. Possible periods of degraded conditions at high 
latitudes days two to three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 May    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Normal to enhanced over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May    25    Near predicted monthly values 
29 May    20    Near predicted monthly values 
30 May    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Possible periods of degraded ionospheric conditions 
at high latitudes days two to three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    64400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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