[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22122111
      Darwin               4   22221011
      Learmonth            4   22122001
      Culgoora             3   11121011
      Camden               8   22222223
      Canberra             3   11122001
      Hobart               3   11122001
      Casey(Ant)           9   23232222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   2000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 May    12    Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
30 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
31 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

COMMENT: Spread F likely to degrade night time communications. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 May    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. Spread F
   observed at most stations during night hours. Sporadic
   E observed at most stations during afternoon hours.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enchanced. 
30 May    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enchanced. 
31 May    20    Near predicted monthly values.

COMMENT: Spread F likely to degrade night time communications. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 294 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    12600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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