[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: A faint full-halo CME was observed in association with 
a B-class flare from AR884 at 26/0006UT. A very weak Type II 
radio sweep was observed on Culgoora radiospectrograph at 25/2315UT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112011
      Darwin               3   11112111
      Learmonth            2   10112020
      Culgoora             1   11101010
      Camden               5   21112122
      Canberra             1   00002010
      Hobart               2   00112010
      Casey(Ant)           5   22212121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May : 
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1110 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May     3    Quiet 
28 May     4    Quiet 
29 May    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the UT day. A possible weak shock passage resulting from a faint 
full-halo CME observed early in the UT day may result in unsettled 
periods on day three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions observed. Minor 
disturbances observed and expected local night hours at low and 
high latitudes. Possible periods of degraded conditions at high 
latitudes day three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 May    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn,
      Minor disturbances during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values local day,
      Minor disturbances during local night.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May    25    Near predicted monthly values 
28 May    25    Near predicted monthly values 
29 May    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Night communications likely to be degraded due to spread 
F. Possible periods of degraded ionospheric conditions at high 
latitudes day three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    47600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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