[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 18 09:52:21 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with no flare activity
and the background solar xray flux level below 10e-7 W/m^2. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next
2 days, with no active regions currently on disc. Region 875
which produced several M-class flares on last rotation is due
to rotate back into view on 19 May. Bz, the north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5 nT over
the last 24 hours. Solar wind velocity increased from 320 km/s
at 0000UT to a maximum of 380km/s at 1800UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 3 11011212
Learmonth 2 11011201
Culgoora 3 12011111
Camden 5 12112222
Canberra 2 01011201
Hobart 2 21002101
Casey(Ant) 9 22322322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for the next
2 days with possible Active periods due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for the next 24
hours. Possible disturbed periods for high latitudes over the
next 2 days with the chance of an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 20 near predicted monthly values
19 May 15 near predicted monthly values
20 May 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus and NZ
regions with some depressed periods for Northern Aus/Equatorial
regions. Sporadic E observed for Antartic regions. Similar conditions
expected for the next 2 days, with a possible increase in disturbed
ionospheric conditions for Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 62000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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