[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today and is expected to 
remain very low for the next 3 days. The ACE spacecraft shows 
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field to be mostly 
southerly varying between +/-5 nT over the last 24 hours. The 
solar wind has steadily decreased to 320 km/s. Region 10875, 
which produced several M-class x-ray flares on last rotation, 
is due to rotate back into view on 19 May. Presently, there are 
no spot groups on the earth-side solar disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101111
      Darwin               1   11001101
      Learmonth            1   11001100
      Culgoora             2   11101101
      Camden               4   11111122
      Canberra             0   00001001
      Hobart               2   10202001
      Casey(Ant)           8   23222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May     6    Quiet 
18 May     6    Quiet 
19 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 May    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May    15    near predicted monthly values 
18 May    15    near predicted monthly values 
19 May    15    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Normal ionospheric conditions observed in the Australian 
region, except for isolated cases of sporadic E in early morning 
hours at low latitudes and spread F overnight at high latitudes. 
Expect the same for the next 3 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    46900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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