[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today and is expected to 
remain very low for the next 3 days. The ACE spacecraft shows 
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field to be mostly 
southerly varying between +/-5 nT over the last 24 hours. The 
solar wind has steadily decreased to 400 km/s. Small equatorial 
coronal hole is moving into geoeffective position. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121111
      Darwin               2   11121001
      Learmonth            2   11121001
      Culgoora             3   11121---
      Camden               4   11122111
      Canberra             3   11121---
      Hobart               2   01021---
      Casey(Ant)           9   33222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May : 
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3421 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
17 May    12    Unsettled 
18 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: The Australian region was mainly quiet yesterday. Expect 
the geomagnetic activity to increase tonight to unsettle to active 
levels due to small equatorial coronal hole moving into a geoeffective 
position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditons for the Australian 
region. High latitudes may have periods of degraded communication 
due to disturbance of geomagnetic field induced by a geoeffective 
coronal hole. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 May    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May    20    near predicted monthly values 
17 May    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
18 May    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Expect normal ionospheric conditions in the Australian 
region. High latidues may have minor disturbances due to disturbed 
geomagnetic field induced by geoeffective coronal hole. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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