[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 06
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 19 09:56:17 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with no flare activity
and the background solar xray flux level remains below 10e-7
W/m^2. Solar activity is expected to remain at these very low
levels over the next 2 days as there are no active regions currently
on disc. Region 875 which produced several M-class flares on
last rotation is expected to rotate back into view in the next
24-36 hours. Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +/-10 nT over the last 24 hours
with some notable southward periods. Solar wind velocity increased
from 300km/s at 0000UT to be 600km/s at the time of this report,
as the earth is subjected to a high speed solar wind stream from
a geoeffective coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 11 22332332
Darwin 11 22332332
Learmonth 11 3-232332
Culgoora 10 22331332
Camden 9 22322322
Canberra 9 -2-31331
Hobart 8 11321331
Casey(Ant) 12 22342332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Canberra 155 (Severe storm)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Culgoora 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours with brief Active periods observed at
high latitudes, due to the effects of a geoeffective coronal
hole high speed wind stream. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 2 days while solar wind parameters remain elevated.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Disturbed periods observed for high latitudes and some
spread F in the last 24 hours, with some instances of sporadic
E at mid latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next
24-48 hours tending towards slightly depressed ionospheric conditions
for mid to high latitudes due to the increase in geomagnetic
activity from a coronal hole. Mostly normal HF conditions expected
for low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
20 May 15 near predicted monthly values
21 May 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Northern Aus
and Equatorial regions with some slight enhancements during local
day. Southern Aus and NZ regions experienced some sporadic E
while Antartic regions experienced some spread F as well as disturbed
ionospheric conditions from an increase in geomagnetic activty
from the current high speed solar wind stream of the geoeffective
coronal hole. Similar conditions are expected over for the next
24-48 hours, with some slightly depressed periods for Antarctic,
Southern Aus and NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 38800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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