[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today and is expected to 
remain very low for the next 3 days. The ACE spacecraft shows 
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated 
between -9 and +5 nT since the coronal hole effects have reached 
the geoeffective location. Solar wind has steadily increased 
to approximately 650 km/s. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   23343232
      Darwin              13   33333232
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Culgoora            12   23343222
      Camden              11   23332232
      Canberra            13   23343232
      Hobart              12   23343222
      Casey(Ant)          17   34343233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              74   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0001 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May    35    Active to Minor storm 
13 May    25    active 
14 May    16    active 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 9 May and is 
current for interval 10-12 May. The Earth has entered a high 
speed solar wind stream induced by a coronal hole in a geoeffective 
position. Expect the geomagantic activity to range between active 
to minor storm levels over the next two days. 
A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0529UT on 11 May. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor     
13 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor     
14 May      Normal         Normal         Fair          

COMMENT: Over the next 3 days expect periods of degraded HF conditions 
at high latitudes and mild degraded conditions at low latitudes 
due to geomagnetic activity caused by a geoeffective coronal 
hole. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 May    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
13 May    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
14 May    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 9 May 
and is current for interval 11-12 May. Over the next 3 days expect 
periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes and mild 
degraded conditions at low latitudes due to geomagnetic activity 
caused by a geoeffective coronal hole. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    27700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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