[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today and is expected to 
remain very low for the next 3 days. The ACE spacecraft shows 
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated 
between -5 and +5 nT over the last 24 hours. Solar wind has steadily 
decreased to approximately 550 km/s. SOHO LASCO imagery showed 
a CME commencing at approximately 0142 UT on the east limb of 
the sun. No associated activity on the earth-side of the sun, 
suspect it was far-side activity. When this region rotates onto 
earth-side of disk expect a possible increase in solar activity. 



IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
 from solar region(s):number 883.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   33323222
      Darwin              11   33323222
      Learmonth           12   33323322
      Culgoora            10   33323211
      Camden              10   33323221
      Canberra            11   33322---
      Hobart              10   33323221
      Casey(Ant)          17   3443-3-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Canberra           142   (Severe storm)
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              63   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             18   3444 3234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
14 May    12    Unsettled 
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: The coronal hole effects were diminished this rotation, 
possibly due to seasonal variations as the Earth gets farther 
from the equinox position. High latitudes such as Casey and Davis 
stations showed periods of minor storm activity. The Australian 
region was mainly unsettled. Expect geomagnetic activity to settle 
over the next 3 days as coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective 
position. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditons with possible mild degradtions 
at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    20    near predicted monthly values 
14 May    20    near predicted monthly values 
15 May    20    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal ionospheric conditions with a possibility 
of minor disturbances at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 558 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   277000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"