[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 May             12 May             13 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today and is expected to 
remain very low for the next 3 days. Region 10882 near the west 
limb has shown minor plage fluctuations, otherwise appears stable. 
There is a slight chance for a C-class x-ray flare from this 
region. The ACE spacecraft shows a solar wind which stepped up 
slightly to 410 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has shifted to the south ranging from 0 to -6 
nT and is presently about -4 nT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Darwin               4   11111122
      Learmonth            3   11------
      Culgoora             2   01100012
      Camden               4   11111122
      Canberra             1   00000012
      Hobart               2   10001012
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May : 
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0012 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 May    25    active 
12 May    40    Minor storm 
13 May    35    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 9 May and is 
current for interval 10-12 May. The Earth is entering a high 
speed solar when stream induced by a coronal hole in a geoeffective 
position. The interplanetary magnetic field has shifted slightly 
to the south and is presently -4 nT. Due to these factors it 
is expected that the geomagnetic activity levels will become 
active to minor storm levels over the next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Fair          
12 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor          
13 May      Fair-normal    Normal         Poor-fair     
COMMENT: Today expect HF conditions to remain mostly normal in 
the low and mid latitudes and normal to fair in the high latitudes. 
As the geomagnetic activity takes effect conditions are likely 
to degrade over the following 2 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 May    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 May    30    near predicted monthly values 
12 May    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
13 May    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 9 May 
and is current for interval 11-12 May. Expect near normal HF 
conditions today, but over the following 2 days expect HF conditions 
to degrade. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

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