[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 10 09:40:26 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain very low
level today as well. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 480 to 420 km/s today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
remained slightly positive for most part of the UT day
today. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next three days. Another coronal hole
effect may start to strengthen the solar wind stream
late on 10 May or early on 11 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 3 21110111
Darwin 3 21120102
Learmonth 2 11110101
Culgoora 2 11110101
Camden 6 22121222
Canberra 2 10110201
Hobart 2 11110111
Casey(Ant) 8 33221222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2431 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active conditions
possible.
11 May 18 Mostly unsettled to active, minor storm possible.
12 May 24 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: The effect of a coronal hole, that is expected
to take a geoeffective position late on 10 May or early
on 11 May, may raise the geomagnetic activity to active
levels with some possibility of minor storm conditions
on 11 May. The activity level is expected to remain at
active to minor storm levels on 12 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations are possible
in the HF conditions on 11 and 12 May due to an anticipated
rise in geomangnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods
of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
11 May 26 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
12 May 22 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor to moderate degradations,
especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, on 11 and 12 May
due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity during on
these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 555 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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