[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 9 09:53:14 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. The effect
of the coronal hole seems to be diminishing as the solar wind
speed gradually decreased from 620 to 500 km/s today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained slightly positive for most part of the UT day
today. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next three days. Another coronal hole effect may start
to strengthen the solar wind stream late on 10 May or early
on 11 May.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 883.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to unsettled with
isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22221011
Darwin 4 22221011
Learmonth 3 22220000
Culgoora 4 22221011
Camden 7 22221232
Canberra 3 22221000
Hobart 7 42321001
Casey(Ant) 8 33321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19 3454 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
10 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
11 May 18 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 6 May and
is current for interval 7-9 May. Despite a strong solar
wind stream the geomagnetic activity remained slightly
weaker than anticipations. The likely cause for the lower
geomagnetic activity seems to have been sustained periods
of positive Bz. The geomagnetic activity level may still
rise above the predictions on 09 May if sustained periods
of negative Bz are observed on this day. Another coronal
hole effect may raise the geomagnetic activity to active
levels with some possibility of minor storm conditions on
11 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
09 and 10 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations are possible
in HF conditions on 11 May due to an anticipated rise in
geomangnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 34 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
10 May 35 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
11 May 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor to moderate degradations,
especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, on 11 May due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 613 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 182000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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