[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 5 09:52:33 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. A C1.1 flare
was observed from a bright region on the eastern limb that
is rotating onto the disk now. A faint partial halo CME
(starting 0131UT) was observed from an approximate location
of S33W07. The CME has been associated with a disappearing
solar filament. The solar wind speed remained between 300
and 340 km/s almost the whole day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed
southwards from 0300UT to 1400UT today. The effect of a
geoeffective coronal hole and the above mentioned CME activity
may keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the next three
days. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low
levels during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 10 21224322
Darwin 10 22224322
Learmonth 11 21324322
Culgoora 9 11224312
Camden 9 11224322
Canberra 13 11235322
Hobart 14 -2235321
Casey(Ant) 8 22223231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 50 (Unsettled)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 20 Unsettled to active, minor storm possible.
06 May 26 Active to minor storm.
07 May 16 Unsettled to active.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 3 May and is
current for interval 4-6 May. The effects of a CME and a high
speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole are expected to raise
the geomagnetic activity upto active to minor storm levels on
05 and 06 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 May Fair Fair Fair-Poor
07 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations are possible in the
HF conditions during the next two days due to an anticipated
rise in the geomagnetic activity during this peiod.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 24 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 May 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 May 28 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on
4 May and is current for interval 5-6 May. HF conditions
may show minor to significant degradations, especially in
the Southern Aus/NZ regions, during the next two days due
to an expected rise in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY .R
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 278 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 13900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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