[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27
COMMENT: Solar acitivity has been very low today. A coronal 
hole effect is expected to strengthen the solar wind stream 
for the next three days. Solar activity is expected to remain 
at very low to low levels during this period. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               3   21100112
      Learmonth            2   21100011
      Culgoora             1   11100011
      Camden               2   11101011
      Canberra             1   10100001
      Hobart               1   10100011
      Casey(Ant)           4   12201122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1010 0121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May    10    Quiet to unsettled, active periods possible. 
05 May    20    Unsettled to active, minor storm possible. 
06 May    26    Active to minor storm. 
COMMENT: The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from 
a coronal hole is expected to raise the geomagnetic activity 
upto active levels on 04 May and upto minor storm levels on 
05 and 06 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
06 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations are possible 
in the HF conditions during the next three days due to 
an anticipated rise in the geomangnetic activity during 
this peiod. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 May    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May    25    near predicted monthly values 
05 May    18    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
06 May    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show minor to 
significant degradations, especially in the Southern 
Aus/NZ regions, during the next three days due to an 
expected rise in the geomagnetic activity during this 
period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 277 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    11600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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