[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May:  89/33

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Equatorial coronal hole now at central meridian. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111101
      Darwin               3   21211002
      Learmonth            2   21110010
      Culgoora             2   21101001
      Camden               2   10111111
      Canberra             2   11101101
      Hobart               2   11101101
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0011 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May    12    Quiet to unsettled 
04 May    12    Quiet to unsettled with activity increasing late 
                in the UT period. 
05 May    18    Mostly unsettled with active periods. 

COMMENT: Expect increasing activity at higher latitudes late 
on 4 May and 5 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

COMMENT: Expect conditions to be degraded late on 4 May and on 
5 May, mostly at higher latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 May    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
04 May    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
05 May    20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced 
                at low latitudes. MUFs at mid and high latitudes 
                are likely to be near predicted monthly values. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    17100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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