[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Isolated M-class flares are still possible. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Darwin               2   21110001
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Culgoora             1   01100001
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             0   10100000
      Hobart               1   01110000
      Casey(Ant)           3   12211100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May    12    Quiet to unsettled 
03 May    12    Quiet to unsettled 
04 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods are possible late on 2 May and 
the 3 May at higher latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Still a chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced at all
   latitudes.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May    30    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
03 May    20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced 
                at low and mid latitudes. Near predicted monthly 
                values at higher latitudes. 
04 May    30    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: There is still the chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances 
over the forecast period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    34100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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