[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 6 09:44:14 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. The
effect of the currently geoeffective coronal hole
remained weaker than earlier expectations. The solar
wind speed showed a gradual rise from 320 to 390 km/s
until 2000UT and it then decreased to 380 km/s by the
time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed slightly to
moderately southwards until 0700UT and then remained
slightly positive during most part of the remaining UT
day. The effect of the currently geoeffective coronal
hole solar wind stream and the CME activity on 04 May
may keep the solar wind stream strengthened on 06 and
possibly 07 May. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 7 32223201
Darwin 7 22223211
Learmonth 7 32223200
Culgoora 7 32223201
Camden 8 32223211
Canberra 7 32223201
Hobart 7 32223200
Casey(Ant) 7 32222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 1132 5333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 26 Active to minor storm.
07 May 16 Unsettled to active.
08 May 8 Quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 3 May and
is current for interval 4-6 May. The effect of the solar
wind stream from the currently geoeffective coronal hole
remained weaker than earliear anticipations. Therefore
the geomagnetic activity did not rise to the previously
predicted levels. However, the effects of a CME(observed
on 04May) and a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole are expected to raise the geomagnetic activity upto
active to minor storm levels on 06 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Fair Fair Fair-Poor
07 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations are possible in
the HF conditions on o6 May due to an anticipated rise in
the geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate
degradations may also be observed at high latitudes on 07
and possibly 08 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day, with periods
of degradations.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day with periods
of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 22 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 May 28 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 34 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on
4 May and is current for interval 5-6 May. HF conditions
may show minor to significant degradations, especially
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, on 06 May due to an
expected rise in the geomagnetic activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 66100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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