[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 26 10:38:19 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low, 
with no active regions currently on disk and the background solar 
x-ray flux falling to low levels. Solar wind velocity fell to 
360km/s. Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated between +/-4nT over the entire UT day. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21122221
      Darwin               5   21112221
      Learmonth            6   21122231
      Culgoora             3   11122110
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             5   12122221
      Hobart               6   12132221
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--12131
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1000 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Mar     7    Quiet 
28 Mar     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours, as the solar wind speed continue fall to a nominal 
level. An expected increase in geomagnetic activity due to a 
narrow equatorial positioned coronal hole did not eventuate and 
there is only a slight chance of an increase in solar wind parameters 
bringing at most Unsettled geomagnetic conditions, over the next 
2 days. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes 
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 2 days. Small chance of high latitude disturbances over 
the next 24-48 hours from a possible increase in geomagnetic 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar    20    near predicted monthly values 
27 Mar    20    near predicted monthly values 
28 Mar    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed for Northern Aus 
regions and some local evening enhancements observed for Southern 
Aus/NZ regions. Generally good HF conditions are expected for 
the next 2 days over all regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    55300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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