[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 26 10:38:19 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low,
with no active regions currently on disk and the background solar
x-ray flux falling to low levels. Solar wind velocity fell to
360km/s. Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated between +/-4nT over the entire UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21122221
Darwin 5 21112221
Learmonth 6 21122231
Culgoora 3 11122110
Camden - --------
Canberra 5 12122221
Hobart 6 12132221
Casey(Ant) 7 3--12131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar 7 Quiet
28 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours, as the solar wind speed continue fall to a nominal
level. An expected increase in geomagnetic activity due to a
narrow equatorial positioned coronal hole did not eventuate and
there is only a slight chance of an increase in solar wind parameters
bringing at most Unsettled geomagnetic conditions, over the next
2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 2 days. Small chance of high latitude disturbances over
the next 24-48 hours from a possible increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 20 near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 20 near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed for Northern Aus
regions and some local evening enhancements observed for Southern
Aus/NZ regions. Generally good HF conditions are expected for
the next 2 days over all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 55300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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