[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 25 10:44:36 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low,
with just a single B-class event. Region 862 will rotate off
the disk in the next 24 hours, and take with it any possibility
of C-class or greater events for the next 24-48 hours. Solar
wind velocity fell from 400km/s at 0000UT to be 380km/s at the
time of this report. Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated between +/-5nT over the entire UT day.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 862,number 863.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Darwin 4 21121012
Learmonth 4 22110112
Culgoora 2 10011111
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 10110011
Hobart 3 22110111
Casey(Ant) 8 33321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2220 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours, as solar wind speed parameters continue to fall to
low levels. There is a chance for a increase in geomagnetic activity
over the next 24-48 hours due to a narrow equatorial positioned
coronal hole moving into geoeffective position bringing elevated
solar wind parameters and Unsettled geomagnetic conditions with
possible isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed at low to
mid latitudes as well as some peridos of poor ionospheric support
for low latitudes. Possibility of high latitude disturbance over
the next 2 days from expected increase in geomagnetic conditions.
Mostly normal HF conditons expected for low to mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
27 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed for Southern Aus
and NZ regions as well as mid latitudes - some depressed periods
during local evenings/night. Mostly normal conditions observed
for Southern Aus/NZ regions. High latitude disturbances possible
over the next 2 days with an expected mild increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 66600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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