[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 25 10:44:36 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low, 
with just a single B-class event. Region 862 will rotate off 
the disk in the next 24 hours, and take with it any possibility 
of C-class or greater events for the next 24-48 hours. Solar 
wind velocity fell from 400km/s at 0000UT to be 380km/s at the 
time of this report. Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated between +/-5nT over the entire UT day. 



IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
 from solar region(s):number 862,number 863.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111112
      Darwin               4   21121012
      Learmonth            4   22110112
      Culgoora             2   10011111
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             1   10110011
      Hobart               3   22110111
      Casey(Ant)           8   33321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2220 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Mar     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours, as solar wind speed parameters continue to fall to 
low levels. There is a chance for a increase in geomagnetic activity 
over the next 24-48 hours due to a narrow equatorial positioned 
coronal hole moving into geoeffective position bringing elevated 
solar wind parameters and Unsettled geomagnetic conditions with 
possible isolated Active periods. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed at low to 
mid latitudes as well as some peridos of poor ionospheric support 
for low latitudes. Possibility of high latitude disturbance over 
the next 2 days from expected increase in geomagnetic conditions. 
Mostly normal HF conditons expected for low to mid latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
27 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed for Southern Aus 
and NZ regions as well as mid latitudes - some depressed periods 
during local evenings/night. Mostly normal conditions observed 
for Southern Aus/NZ regions. High latitude disturbances possible 
over the next 2 days with an expected mild increase in geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    66600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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