[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 24 10:34:59 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low, 
with only B-class events from current active region 862. Region 
862 showed some signs of decay in overall spot size as it approaches 
the west limb, while it still has the potential for isolated 
C-class events. Solar wind velocity continued to decline from 
500km/s at 0000UT to be 400km/s at the time of this report. Bz, 
the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
fluctuated between +/-2nT over the entire UT day. 



IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
 from solar region(s):number 862.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111001
      Darwin               4   22111102
      Learmonth            1   11101001
      Culgoora             2   11111001
      Camden               2   1111110-
      Canberra             2   21111000
      Hobart               2   21111000
      Casey(Ant)           8   33-22112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : 
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3431 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours, as solar wind speed parameters continue to decline 
as the effects of the recent coronal hole diminish. Solar wind 
velocity fell from 500km/s at the beginning of the UT day to 
be currently 400km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has fluctuated 
about +/-2n over the last 24 hours. Possible increase in geomagnetic 
activity over the next 24-48 hours due to a narrow equatorial 
positioned coronal hole moving into geoeffective position. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed at low to 
mid latitudes as well as some sporadic E for low latitudes. Possibility 
of high latitude disturbance over the next 2 days from expected 
increase in geomagnetic conditions. Normal HF conditons expected 
for low to mid latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
25 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed for mid latitudes 
and some evening sporadic E for Northern Aus/Equatorial regions. 
Mostly normal conditions ovbserved for Southern Aus/NZ regions. 
High latitude disturbances possible from 24th-25th March with 
an expected mild increase in geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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