[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 24 10:34:59 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low,
with only B-class events from current active region 862. Region
862 showed some signs of decay in overall spot size as it approaches
the west limb, while it still has the potential for isolated
C-class events. Solar wind velocity continued to decline from
500km/s at 0000UT to be 400km/s at the time of this report. Bz,
the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated between +/-2nT over the entire UT day.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 862.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21111001
Darwin 4 22111102
Learmonth 1 11101001
Culgoora 2 11111001
Camden 2 1111110-
Canberra 2 21111000
Hobart 2 21111000
Casey(Ant) 8 33-22112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3431 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours, as solar wind speed parameters continue to decline
as the effects of the recent coronal hole diminish. Solar wind
velocity fell from 500km/s at the beginning of the UT day to
be currently 400km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has fluctuated
about +/-2n over the last 24 hours. Possible increase in geomagnetic
activity over the next 24-48 hours due to a narrow equatorial
positioned coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed at low to
mid latitudes as well as some sporadic E for low latitudes. Possibility
of high latitude disturbance over the next 2 days from expected
increase in geomagnetic conditions. Normal HF conditons expected
for low to mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed for mid latitudes
and some evening sporadic E for Northern Aus/Equatorial regions.
Mostly normal conditions ovbserved for Southern Aus/NZ regions.
High latitude disturbances possible from 24th-25th March with
an expected mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 550 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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