[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 23 10:48:02 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low,
with only B-class events from current active region 862. There
has been no significant change in region 862 overall size and
magnetic complexity, but it has the potential for isolated C-class
events before it rotates off the visible solar disc within the
next 2 days. Solar wind velocity began to decline from 600km/s
to be 500km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between
+/-3nT over the entire UT day.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 862.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22221221
Darwin 6 22211222
Learmonth 6 32211221
Culgoora 5 22210221
Camden 5 22221121
Canberra 7 23221222
Hobart 8 23321221
Casey(Ant) 12 33421232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 3411 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours, as solar wind speed paramters have begun to decline
as the effects of the recent coronal hole diminish. Solar wind
velocity fell from 600km/s at the beginning of the UT day to
be currently 500km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has fluctuated
about +/-3n over the last 24 hours. A continuing decline in activity
is expected over the next 24-48 hours, after which a narrow equatorial
positioned coronal hole will move into geoeffective position
bringing mildly elevated geomagnetic conditions. A southern hemisphere
extenson to this feature may result in a few days of unsettled
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed at low to
mid latitudes. Extended periods of disturbance observed at high
latitudes. Possibility of further high latitude disturbance over
the next 2 days, with normal HF conditons expected for low to
mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 20 near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed Northern Australia
and Equatorial regions. Weak ionospheric conditions observed
S Ocean/Antarctic region. Otherwise regional conditions mostly
near normal and are expected to improve over the next 24 hours.
High latitude disturbances possible from 24th-25th March with
an expected mild increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 599 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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