[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 22 10:31:21 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar active region 862 continues to develop in activity,
producing a number of minor flares over the past 24 hours, the
largest being a C2.5 level flare at 0944UT. This region has potential
for further activity, but will rotate off the visible solar disc
within the next few days.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 862.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 22223322
Darwin 9 22223322
Learmonth 11 22223432
Culgoora 8 22123322
Camden 8 22123322
Canberra 11 23233322
Hobart 10 22233322
Casey(Ant) 14 34-32323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Canberra 61 (Active)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 99 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 22 5444 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 5 Quiet
23 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains steady at around 600 km/s.
The Bz component of the IMF has fluctuated about neutral, with
one sustained moderate southward excursion in the second half
of the UT day. This resulted in an unsettled to active interval
at some stations. Otherwise the geomagnetic field has declined
to generally quiet at low to mid latitudes and unsettled at high
latitudes. Expect a continuing decline in activity days 1-2.
A narrow equatorial coronal hole will move into geoeffective
position days 2-3, bringing mildly elevated geomagnetic conditions.
A southern hemisphere extenson to this feature may result in
a few days of unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed at most
mid latitudes. Extended periods of disturbance observed at high
latitudes. Possibility of further high latitude disturbance days
two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
Extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed Aus region. Occasionally
intense periods of sporadic-E observed S Aus/S Ocean regions.
Generally weak ionospheric conditions observed S Ocean/Antarctic
region. Otherwise regional conditions mostly near normal and
should gradually improve day one. Possibility of further high
latitude disturbance days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 680 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 216000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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