[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 21 09:53:38 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar background X-ray flux has increased from the previously
very low levels, as active region 862 (S07W27) showed some growth
over the past 24 hours. This region produced a number of B-class
flares over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels over the forecast period.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 862.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 15 33343332
Darwin 14 23343332
Learmonth 20 23354342
Culgoora 15 33343332
Camden 14 23343332
Canberra 18 33353332
Hobart 19 33453332
Casey(Ant) 21 35442342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Canberra 120 (Major storm)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Culgoora 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 130 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 37 6554 4243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar 5 Quiet
23 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity generally declined over the first
half of the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field maintained a mildly southward bias over most of the UT
day. Solar wind speed peaked at over 700 km/s late in the first
half of the UT day, producing an interval of active geomagnetic
conditions at all latitudes. Otherwise the geomagnetic field
was quiet to unsettled at low to mid latitudes and unsettled
to active at high latitudes. Brief minor storm intervals were
observed at some high latitude stations. Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions on day one, with active periods possible at high latitudes.
Conditions should decline to generally quiet on days two and
three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed at some low latitudes.
Extended periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes. Possibility
of further high latitude disturbance days one and two.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values,
Localised daytime depressions.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values,
Localised daytime depressions.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Localised, occasionally deep daytime depressions observed
PNG/N Aus region. Occasionally intense periods of sporadic-E
observed S Aus/S Ocean regions. Generally weak ionospheric conditions
observed S Ocean/Antarctic region, with periods of increased
absorption. Otherwise regional conditions mostly near normal
and should gradually improve days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 628 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 231000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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