[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 20 10:29:22 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 22 44444333
Darwin 18 43334333
Learmonth 23 53344343
Culgoora 21 44443333
Camden 21 44444323
Canberra 25 44454333
Hobart 23 43544333
Casey(Ant) 22 45443233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Canberra 75 (Active)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 99 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 26 1144 3555
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 18 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
21 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased to above 600 km/s and remained
at that level for most of the UT day. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field trended moderately southward for
the first half of the UT day, leading to periods of active to
minor storm conditions at high latitudes. At low to mid latitudes,
regional conditions were mainly unsettled, with isolated active
intervals at some stations. Activity has generally declined over
the latter part of the UT day. Expect continuing mainly unsettled
conditions on day one, with active to minor storm periods possible
at high latitudes. Conditions should decline to quiet to unsettled
on day two, becoming mainly quiet by day three.
AUTOMATED GEOMAGNETIC STORM DURATION FORECAST
Dst-index storm peak of -112 observed at 19 03 06 at 0045 UT
Geomagnetic storm end expected at: NA
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed at mid to high
latitudes. Extended periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes.
Possibility of further high latitude disturbance throughout the
forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable conditions during local day,
Extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 10 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Localised variability observed over most of the region
under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. Expect similar
conditions Equatorial/Aus region on day one. Generally weak ionospheric
conditions observed S Ocean/Antarctic region, with periods of
increased absorption. Regional conditions should gradually improve
days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 135000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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