[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 19 10:26:08 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 14 22343333
Darwin 15 22342343
Learmonth 18 22342444
Culgoora 11 12332333
Camden 12 12333333
Canberra 17 12343443
Hobart 18 12353433
Casey(Ant) 18 33343334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Culgoora 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 72 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Mar 12 Unsettled
21 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Coronal hole wind stream onset occurred after 08UT,
earlier than anticipated. Solar wind velocity increased rapidly
to 550 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field sustained a mild southward bias over most of the second
half of the UT day. Regional geomagnetic conditions were quiet
to unsettled at low to mid latitudes, with mostly unsettled conditions
and occasional active intervals observed at high latitudes. Expect
continuing unsettled conditions at low to mid latitudes, with
the chance of active intervals. Unsettled to active conditions
anticipated at high latitudes. Activity should decline to mostly
unsettled levels by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significant localised variability observed at low latitudes.
Otherwise HF conditions mostly near normal. Possibility of some
high latitude disturbance throughout the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 10 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Localised variability observed over most of the region
following the onset of a coronal hole wind stream. Expect similar
conditions Equatorial/Aus region next two days. Spread-F and
occasionally intense sporadic-E expected Antarctic region, otherwise
normal to slightly enhanced MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 46100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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