[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111012
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Learmonth            1   11010011
      Culgoora             3   21011012
      Camden               5   23121012
      Canberra             3   11121012
      Hobart               3   21111012
      Casey(Ant)           6   23311111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1222 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar     4    Quiet 
19 Mar    12    Unsettled 
20 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet today. Expect 
quiet conditions day one of the forecast period. A small equatorial 
coronal hole is moving into geoeffective position and may produce 
unsettled conditions day two with a chance of isolated active 
intervals, declining to mostly unsettled conditions day three. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor localised variability observed at low latitudes. 
Otherwise HF conditions mostly near normal. Expect mostly normal 
conditions next three days. Possibility of some high latitude 
disturbance on days two and three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Mar    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Localised variability observed Equatorial/PNG regions. 
Persistent spread-F observed at some S Aus/Antarctic sites. Expect 
mostly normal regional conditions next three days. Possibility 
of some disturbance in Antarctic region on days two and three, 
possibly extending to S Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:    95100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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