[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222311
      Darwin               7   22222311
      Learmonth            6   22222310
      Culgoora             6   1222----
      Camden               7   22232211
      Canberra             7   12232311
      Hobart               9   23232311
      Casey(Ant)          13   34422311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1212 2231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar     4    Quiet 
18 Mar     4    Quiet 
19 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with 
isolated unsettled periods observed at high latitudes only in 
the first half of the UT day. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions 
expected next three days. A weak coronal hole wind stream may 
bring unsettled periods on day three. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor localised daytime variability observed at low 
latitudes. Otherwise HF conditions mostly near normal. Expect 
similar conditions next three days. Possibility of some high 
latitude disturbance on day three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values 
18 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor localised daytime variability observed Equatorial/PNG 
regions. Persistent spread-F observed at some high latitude sites. 
Expect mostly normal regional conditions next three days. Possibility 
of some disturbance in Antarctic region on day three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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