[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23322221
      Darwin               9   23322222
      Learmonth           12   33332331
      Culgoora             7   22322220
      Camden              11   33322232
      Canberra             9   23322231
      Hobart               7   23321220
      Casey(Ant)          15   3-532321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0001 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     4    Quiet 
17 Mar     4    Quiet 
18 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased briefly to about 550 km/s 
due to a weak coronal hole wind stream, declining during the 
second half of the UT day. Minor polarity fluctuations were observed 
in the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
during the increasing phase. The geomagnetic field was predominantly 
quiet, with isolated unsettled periods observed at high latitudes 
only. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions expected next three 
days. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Localised daytime variability observed at low latitudes. 
Minor disturbances observed at some high latitude sites. Otherwise 
HF conditions mostly near normal. Expect similar conditions next 
three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Variable conditions during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
17 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values 
18 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Localised daytime variability observed Equatorial/PNG/N 
Aus regions. Persistent spread-F observed at some high latitude 
sites. Expect continuing variable conditions in Equatorial/PNG 
region, with conditions mostly normal in Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    35000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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