[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 15 10:16:36 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. This is expected 
to continue. Newly numbered region 0860 produced a series of 
B-class Xray flares over the day and is likely to continue flaring 
at this level over 15 March. Isolated C-class flares possible 
from this region. The Earth entered a high speed coronal hole 
wind stream late on 14 March, which is expected to persist through 
15 March and wane by 16 March. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11012011
      Darwin               2   11011012
      Learmonth            2   01012011
      Culgoora             1   10011001
      Camden               5   221-----
      Canberra             2   10012001
      Hobart               2   11002001
      Casey(Ant)           7   23231012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0001 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    12    Unsettled 
16 Mar     7    Quiet 
17 Mar     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day. A recurrent 
high speed coronal hole wind stream may produce generally unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions for 15 March. A return to predominantly 
quiet conditions is expected for 16 March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for 15 
March. However, minor degradation of HF conditions possible at 
higher latitudes on 15 March in response to increased geomagnetic 
activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Variably Depressed/Enhanced to 30%, 
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25% 
16 Mar    16    near predicted monthly values 
17 Mar    17    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the N.Aus/PNG region showed significant 
variability over the UT day with both large depressions and enhancements 
of MUF by 30% of monthly predicted values. The ionosphere in 
the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions was normal over the UT day. Expect 
similar conditions on 15 March. However, minor ionospheric depressions 
and HF degradation is possible in the NZ/Antarctic regions in 
response to increased geomagnetic activity levels. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    58500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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