[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 27 10:40:28 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low,
with no active regions currently on disk and the background solar
x-ray flux falling to very low levels. Solar wind velocity was
370km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated in the latter
half of the UT day between +/-7nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22122232
Darwin 7 22122232
Learmonth 7 22122232
Culgoora 7 12122232
Camden - --------
Canberra 6 12022232
Hobart 6 12022232
Casey(Ant) 11 23332223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 2311 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions occuring in the latter
half of the UT day when Bz fluctuations increased in range to
+/-7nT, most likely the effects of a brief equatorial positioned
coronal hole last visible on 24March. Mostly Quiet with possible
Unsettled conditions for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes
during the last 24 hours with some depressed periods for mid
latitudes and disturbances for high latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days, with possible high latitude
disturbances.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Local daytime and evening depressions observed for Northern
Aus as well as Southern Aus/NZ regions. Variable disturbed periods
for Antartic regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for
the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 50400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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