[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low 
levels. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase after 
0600UT today and it went up from 300 to 400 km/s by the 
time of this report. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed mild to moderate 
fluctuations. Bz stayed southward for sustained periods 
today. Solar activity is expected to continue to remain 
at very low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12223233
      Darwin               8   12212233
      Learmonth           11   21223243
      Culgoora             7   11212233
      Camden               8   12223232
      Canberra             8   10223233
      Hobart               -   --------
      Casey(Ant)          12   23422233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Some enhancement in geomagnetic activity was 
recorded today. The possible cause of this enhancement 
seems to be sustained periods of negative Bz alongwith 
some strengthening in the solar wind stream. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most low and mid locations for the next three days. Minor 
degradations may be possible on high latitudes during this 
period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Mar     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
08 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
09 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with 
some possibility of isolated minor depressions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    39800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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