[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 8 10:37:07 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
levels. Region 856(S08W39) produced a B1 flare at 1558UT.
The solar wind speed remained between 380 and 420 km/s
almost the whole day today. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed mild to
moderate fluctuations until 0800UT and remained predominantly
southwards until mid day. Bz stayed close to the normal
value during the rest of the day. Solar activity is expected
to continue to remain at very low levels for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 32332111
Darwin 6 32222111
Learmonth 6 32223100
Culgoora 6 22232101
Camden 8 23332111
Canberra 9 33332101
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 9 3-422111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 0011 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar 12 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
10 Mar 14 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
COMMENT: Some enhancements in geomagnetic activity were
recorded today. The possible cause of these enhancements
seem to have been sustained periods of negative Bz and
some strengthening in the solar wind stream. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels on 08 March. The effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic activity
enhanced at mostly unsettled levels with possibility of
active periods on 09 and 10 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most low and mid locations for the next three
days. Minor to mild degradations may be possible at high
latitudes during this period due to some anticipated
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
09 Mar 17 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
10 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most northern parts of Aus/NZ regions for
the next three days. Minor depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions are possible in the
Sourthern Aus/NZ regions due to some anticipated
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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