[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 8 10:37:07 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity  continued  to remain at very low 
levels. Region 856(S08W39) produced a B1 flare at 1558UT. 
The  solar wind speed  remained  between 380 and 420 km/s 
almost the whole day today.  The north-south component of 
the  interplanetary  magnetic  field (Bz)  showed mild to 
moderate fluctuations until 0800UT and remained predominantly 
southwards until mid day. Bz stayed close  to  the  normal 
value during the rest of the day. Solar activity is expected 
to continue to remain at very low levels for the next three 
days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32332111
      Darwin               6   32222111
      Learmonth            6   32223100
      Culgoora             6   22232101
      Camden               8   23332111
      Canberra             9   33332101
      Hobart               -   --------
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-422111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   0011 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Mar    12    Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible. 
10 Mar    14    Mostly unsettled, active periods possible. 
COMMENT: Some enhancements in  geomagnetic  activity  were 
recorded  today. The possible cause  of these enhancements 
seem to have  been sustained  periods  of  negative Bz and 
some strengthening in the solar wind stream. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels on 08 March. The effect of a high  speed solar wind 
stream from a coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic activity 
enhanced  at  mostly  unsettled  levels with possibility of 
active periods on 09 and 10 March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions  are  expected  to remain  mostly 
normal on most low and mid locations for the next  three 
days. Minor to mild degradations may be possible at high 
latitudes  during  this  period  due to some anticipated 
enhancements in geomagnetic  activity levels during this
period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Mar    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
09 Mar    17    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
10 Mar    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in most northern parts of  Aus/NZ regions for 
the next  three days. Minor  depressions in MUFs and 
degradations  in HF  conditions are  possible in the 
Sourthern  Aus/NZ regions  due to  some  anticipated 
enhancements  in  geomagnetic activity levels during 
this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:    38900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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