[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low 
levels. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 
340 to 300 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed minor 
fluctuations, staying slightly northwards for most part of 
the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to continue 
to remain at very low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Culgoora             1   11100000
      Camden               3   11221011
      Canberra             0   01100000
      Hobart               -   --------
      Casey(Ant)           6   23321001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   0010 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar     5    Quiet 
07 Mar     5    Quiet 
08 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Mar    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar    20    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Mar    20    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Mar    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    44700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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