[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low 
levels. No flare was observed over the last 24 hours. Solar 
wind speed gradually decreased from 440 km/sec to 380 km/s 
during the UT day today. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field showed minor to moderate 
fluctuations, staying slightly northwards for most part of 
the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to continue 
to remain at very low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Learmonth            2   12101001
      Culgoora             2   11111011
      Camden               3   11122011
      Canberra             2   11112001
      Hobart               2   11112001
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--31111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2212 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     5    Quiet 
04 Mar     5    Quiet 
05 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days with some 
possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 05 March. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days with some possibility 
of minor depressions at high latitude locations on 05 March. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Mar    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar    21    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Mar    21    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar    19    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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