[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Mar             03 Mar             04 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity continues to be very low. No flaring 
was observed. Solar wind speed slowly increased from 390 km/sec 
to 450 km/s by 1600 UT today and then decreased to 420 km/s 
by the time of this report. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field showed minor to moderate 
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value almost the 
whole day today. Solar activity is expected to continue to 
remain at very low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22223111
      Darwin               7   22223211
      Learmonth            8   22224210
      Culgoora             6   21223111
      Camden               8   22224111
      Canberra             8   2222410-
      Hobart               6   22223111
      Casey(Ant)          11   4--33211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   0003 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Mar     5    Quiet 
03 Mar     5    Quiet 
04 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days as no 
significant strengthening of solar wind stream is expected 
during this period. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days as no significant 
rise in geomagnetic activity is expected during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Mar    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Mar    18    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Mar    18    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Mar    18    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    61100 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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