[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 1 10:28:09 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity continues to be very low. No flaring
was observed. A disappearing filament occurred between 0021 and
1505UT. Solar wind speed slowly increased from 320 km/sec to
slightly above average 400 km/sec which may indicate onset of
recurrent coronal hole activity which could slightly elevate
geomagnetic activity. IMF Bz was northward or near zero until
07UT, southward from 07-10UT merging with the geomagnetic field,
and northwards 10-22UT with occasional southward excursions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11221112
Darwin 5 -2122112
Learmonth 3 11121111
Culgoora 4 11121112
Camden 4 11221111
Canberra 5 11131112
Hobart 4 11231101
Casey(Ant) 7 2-331112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1120 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 3 Quiet
02 Mar 3 Quiet
03 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from average 320 km/sec to
slightly above average 400 km/sec, possibly suggesting recurrent
coronal hole activity, but the geomagnetic field does not appear
to be significantly affected yet. IMF Bz southwards 07-10UT slightly
raised polar activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions should be normal for the next
three days in the absence of significant geomagnetic activity,
apart from localised sporadic E. If the solar wind speed continues
to increase significantly from the possible recurrent coronal
hole then geomagnetic activity will increase and ionspheric conditions
may be slightly depressed. The coronal hole doesn't appear to
be large so this effect should not be dramatic. Flare activity
is very low so there is a very low probability of fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night. Vanimo showed
heavy absorption. Pt Moresby showed sporadic E at
dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Slightly above predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Local
varation with Casey, Scott Base and Macquarie Is
showing slight enhancements, Davis showing slight
depression.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 25 ÿon.forecast
02 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions enhanced at low latitudes and slightly enhanced
at mid latitudes. High atitudes returned to normal after convection.
Overall conditions expected to be average apart from local sporadic
E and spread F.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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