[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 4 10:05:15 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low levels.
No flare was observed over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed
first showed a gradual increase from 380 to 420 km/s by 0700UT
and then decreased to 370 km/s by the time of this report. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed
minor to moderate fluctuations, staying slightly northwards for
most part of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to
continue to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 12111111
Learmonth 2 11101111
Culgoora 3 11111111
Camden 4 11112112
Canberra 3 11111111
Hobart 1 10------
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0111 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 5 Quiet
05 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days with some
possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 05 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations for the next three days with
some possibility of minor depressions and degradations
at high latitudes on 05 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 21 Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 19 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 21 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 62700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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