[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 29 09:23:44 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity should remain at low levels next three
days. Solar wind parameters are elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream, which is expected to decline over
the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 22334232
Darwin 12 22-34232
Learmonth 12 22334232
Culgoora 10 22234122
Camden 13 23334232
Canberra 12 22334232
Hobart 11 22334222
Casey(Ant) 11 233232-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 12 Unsettled. Chance active periods.
30 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased steadily over the UT day.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
up to +/- 10nT. An interval of sustained southward Bz in the
mid-part of the UT day resulted in unsettled coditions at low
to mid latitudes and active to minor storm conditions at high
latitudes. A further active interval was observed at high latitudes
only around 1930UT. This was associated with a brief elevation
in solar wind energetic protons. Expect possible active periods
on day one, becoming quiet to unsettled days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next three
days. Possible periods of disturbance at high latitudes day one.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the Aus/NZ
regions for the next three days. Possible disturbances Antarctic
region mainly day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 17700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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